Commodity analyst and Traderindo founder Wahyu Laksono said Indonesia’s decision to implement a single-gate export system for natural resource commodities through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) could instead drive global coal prices up by as much as 25%.

This could happen under a severe supply disruption scenario, especially as Indonesia is one of the world’s largest thermal coal exporters, with average shipments ranging between 350 million and 400 million tons per year.

“Every structural policy taken by Indonesia will certainly resonate in the global market. Global coal prices could actually climb due to concerns over supply shortages [supply shock],” he said when contacted on Monday (May 25, 2026).

Conversely, if PT DSI succeeds in “monopolizing” or consolidating commodity export volumes properly, the entity is considered capable of having a stronger bargaining position to control prices so they do not fall too deeply in the global market.

“So, the impact will greatly depend on how smoothly goods flow out of our ports during this transition period,” he added.

According to Wahyu, based on the ICE Newcastle Coal price chart as of May 21, 2026, the current price stood at USD 137.55 per ton.

“This position is in a strengthening trend after a sharp correction in April, approaching its peak area in recent months,” he said.

Two Scenarios

If the single-gate export policy through PT DSI faces serious operational obstacles on June 1, 2026, he said the potential increase in global coal prices could occur under two scenarios.

The first is a mild to moderate logistics congestion scenario caused by administrative transition.

If the issue only involves delays in export document processing at ports, or bureaucratic congestion causing shipments to be delayed by one to two weeks, the global market would likely respond with short-term panic.

“Given Indonesia’s status as the king of global thermal coal exports, this disruption would immediately push ICE Newcastle prices up by 5% to 10%,” he said.

In nominal terms, global coal prices are projected to rise from USD 137.55 per ton to around USD 144 to USD 151 per ton in a short period.

The second is a severe supply disruption scenario, or systemic supply shock.

Wahyu explained that if PT DSI’s single-gate system experiences a total bottleneck, causing long vessel queues in Kalimantan and Sumatra for more than three weeks, the world would experience a supply shock.

“This could trigger major buyer countries such as China and India to compete for alternative cargoes from Australia or South Africa,” he said.

Under this extreme scenario, he explained, global coal prices are predicted to surge sharply by 15% to 25%. This increase could push prices above a new psychological level, moving from USD 137.55 per ton to the range of USD 158 to USD 172 per ton.

Even so, Wahyu said the scale of the global price increase would be largely determined by the accumulation of demurrage costs, or vessel delay penalties, and how quickly the government responds to complaints on the ground.

“If this state-owned single-gate scheme instead creates a supply bottleneck, ironically, global price volatility will rise sharply. The international market will be forced to pay more due to Indonesia’s domestic regulatory risk, while business players at home will have to bear higher operational costs during the transition period,” he explained.

He also noted that the sudden announcement regarding the establishment of the natural resource export body on Wednesday (May 20, 2026) by President Prabowo Subianto had indeed surprised the market.

“With a transition period of less than 10 days before June 1, it is reasonable for major concerns to emerge regarding operational readiness and its impact on export logistics flows. A policy this sudden usually triggers high uncertainty sentiment among business players and international buyers,” he explained.

As a note, PT DSI is a subsidiary of the Danantara Investment Management Agency (BPI Danantara), established on May 18, 2026, with its headquarters at Wisma Danantara Indonesia, Jalan Gatot Subroto.

Citing documents from the Directorate General of General Legal Administration (AHU) of the Ministry of Law, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia’s authorized capital is recorded at IDR 100 million, consisting of 399 series A shares worth IDR 99,750,000 and one series B share worth IDR 250,000.

BPI Danantara, through PT Danantara Asset Management, holds 99 series A shares valued at IDR 24,750,000. Meanwhile, the series B share is held directly by the Government of the Republic of Indonesia, valued at IDR 250,000.

The shareholders appointed Luke Thomas Mahony as President Director of Danantara Sumberdaya. Luke previously served as Director at PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) from July 2024 to July 2025.

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