In late August and early September 2025, the Asian seaborne coking coal market was characterized by falling prices due to increased Australian supply and weak demand.

Indian buyers took a wait-and-see approach during this period, and there were a number of unsold cargoes on the market. Buyers from this country are likely to remain cautious in the near future, monitoring global trends in coking coal prices. The situation is also affected by the current low domestic demand for steel.

At the same time, the Chinese market remained weak in early autumn as domestic prices continued to fall. In addition, there is uncertainty about the cost of coke. According to SMM, major steel mills in Hebei and Shandong provinces have started the first round of coke price cuts of 50-55 yuan/t (USD 7.0-7.7/t), effective September 8 (in contrast, there were several rounds of increases in August, and another was expected in early September).

According to Kallanish, the price of high-quality coking coal FOB Australia on September 5 was USD 185.81/t, down nearly USD 1.2/t from the previous week (as of August 29). Spot coking coal prices in China (EXW, Anze) as of September 5 were USD 198.86/t (-3.5% from the previous week).

In its monthly report, Mysteel Global expects the Chinese coking coal market to remain in a state of “tight equilibrium” in September amid weak demand and supply. The review predicts a slight downward price correction in the first half of the month due to the need for coking coal mines to sell amid declining demand from end consumers.

Most of the mines in Shanxi province that were shut down ahead of the military parade are resuming operations. However, one of the agency’s surveys showed that the restart may increase supply only slightly, as regulatory pressure to comply with mining safety requirements remains.

Mysteel notes that the long-term outlook for the market depends on the dynamics of domestic steel production and the expected recovery in metal product consumption.

S&P Global analysts noted in their August review that the third quarter of this year for the Asian coking coal market began with observations whether the downward price trend would stop due to replenishment of stocks in India after the monsoon season and a change in sentiment in China.

Demand for coking coal in India may also be supported by the continuation of restrictions on coke imports until the end of this year.

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